China’s parliament begins a two-week legislative session on Monday that is widely expected to clear the way for Xi Jinping to be president for life. As concerned emerging-market investors question what will happen in China, they should remember one thing: China isn’t synonymous with emerging markets.
Investors can be forgiven for conflating the two. Many of them see the developing world through the lens of an emerging-market stock fund, and Chinese companies increasingly dominate those funds.
Consider, for example, that China accounts for 27 percent of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. That’s 13 percentage points more than South Korea, the second-largest allocation in the index. It’s also 18 percentage points more than China’s slice of the index a decade ago, when it was fifth behind Brazil, South Korea, Taiwan and Russia.
Continue reading “China’s Shadow Won’t Eclipse Emerging Markets”
With China in the midst of what appears to be a significant economic slowdown, investors are questioning their faith in one of the new century’s great growth stories. They shouldn’t abandon China just yet.
First, some perspective. China was never going to string together an uninterrupted record of astounding annual growth. Despite all the hyperbole in recent years about China’s prowess and coming global dominance, not even China is exempt from the business cycle. But the current contraction will be followed by another expansion, unless you believe that China is going out of business — and no one who is a serious student of the country and its economy believes that.
Continue reading “Stop Freaking Out About China”
Everyone has grown accustomed to thinking about emerging markets as a monolith — a collection of undifferentiated countries aspiring to the big leagues, with all of the heft and stability of more developed economies.
Emerging markets share similar traits, oftentimes the market prices them similarly, and so they all get wrapped into the familiar and popular one-size-fits-all basket called THE EMERGING MARKET FUND.
Today, that’s the wrong way to think about emerging markets.
Continue reading “Diverging Markets”