High-performing alternative investments are great if you can find them, but pension plans shouldn’t count on it.
The Pew Charitable Trusts recently published its latest report on the investment practices and performance of the 73 largest state public pension funds as of the 2016 fiscal year. The big development is that pension funds are moving their money from stocks to alternatives such as private assets and hedge funds. The average allocation to alternatives more than doubled to 26 percent in 2016 from 11 percent a decade earlier, with a roughly equal percentage leaving stocks.
In an accompanying blog post, Pew warned that the move to alternatives would result in more volatility and higher fees for pension funds. Writing for Bloomberg Opinion, investor Aaron Brown took the opposite view last week, arguing that alternatives dampen volatility and boost performance, even after accounting for fees.
Neither view is entirely right. And with an estimated $1 trillion in state and local public pension funds invested in alternatives, and the retirement of 19 million current and former state and local employees at stake, decision makers rushing into alternatives should be clear about what they’re buying.
The hedge fund industry is losing its star managers but gaining an opportunity to rebuild its battered reputation.
Bloomberg News reported last week that Jon Jacobson, investor and founder of Highfields Capital Management, is winding down his $12.1 billion hedge fund after two decades. As the article noted, he joins a growing list of elite managers who have left the industry or plan to, including Richard Perry, Eric Mindich, John Griffin, Neil Chriss and Leon Cooperman.
In a letter announcing his decision, Jacobson bemoaned a “very treacherous investment environment.” That’s no exaggeration.
A combination of lethal forces has hit hedge funds in recent years. One is a raging U.S. bull market. Jacobson’s fund has been flat since 2017, while the S&P 500 Index was up 35 percent over that time through September, including dividends.
Granted, an investment in hedge funds isn’t the same as buying the broad stock market. But as I noted recently, that doesn’t stop many U.S. investors from comparing every investment with the S&P 500. And by that yardstick, few investments measure up over the last decade. Foreign stocks, bonds, private equity, venture capital, real estate and, yes, hedge funds have all lagged.
Hedge funds’ brightest lights have fallen on hard times, but don’t shed a tear for the industry just yet.
The list of once-revered-now-humbled hedge fund managers is growing. Alan Fournier is shutting Pennant Capital Management after nearly two decades, acknowledging that “recent returns have been disappointing.” David Einhorn’s main hedge fund at Greenlight Capital was down 14 percent in the first quarter after a decline of 4.1 percent annually from 2015 to 2017. Pershing Square Capital Management’s Bill Ackman calledhis recent returns “particularly unsatisfactory,” and investors apparently agree. Ackman’s assets under management shrank to $8.2 billion as of March from $18.3 billion in 2015.
Despite the travails of star managers, however, the hedge fund industry is doing fine. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index returned 0.3 percent during the first quarter, compared with a negative 0.8 percent for the S&P 500 Index, including dividends.
Granted, hedge funds haven’t kept pace with the stock market in recent years, but they’ve fared better than many of the stars among them. The HFRI index has returned 4 percent annually from 2015 through March, compared with 10.2 percent for the S&P 500.
If you want to know where cryptocurrencies are in their development, keep an eye on fees.
When a new “investment” comes along, investors are often too busy counting their anticipated bounty to care about cost. Shrewd purveyors predictably seize the opportunity to charge excessive fees. But reality inevitably falls short of investors’ expectations, and the focus eventually turns to how much they’re paying to invest.
That’s a short history of stock investing. Investors had little access to stock market data a century ago. They didn’t have the luxury of knowing, for example, that the S&P 500 Index would generate a real return of 7.1 percent annually from 1926 to 2017, including dividends. Or that the index’s real return would fall short of that long-term average 52 percent of the time over rolling 10-year periods.
Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio is famously enigmatic, but his latest wager may be the most puzzling yet.
Bloomberg News reported on Thursday that the fund Dalio founded, Bridgewater Associates, has made a $22 billion bet that many of Europe’s biggest companies in the blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 Index are poised to decline.
Bridgewater didn’t respond to Bloomberg’s request for comment, so Dalio’s motivation is not entirely clear. But according to Bloomberg News’ Brandon Kochkodin, Dalio “has a checklist to identify the best time to sell stocks: a strong economy, close to full employment and rising interest rates.”
It’s an old idea. Economic fortunes are reliably cyclical, even if no one can precisely predict the turns. Booms tend to be followed by busts, and vice versa, and stock prices often go along for the ride.
By that measure, it seems like a precarious time for U.S. stocks. The U.S.’s real GDP has grown for eight consecutive years, by 2.2 percent annually from 2010 to 2017. Unemployment has declined to 4.1 percent from 10 percent in late 2009. And the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury is up to 2.9 percent from 2.1 percent in September — an increase of nearly 40 percent.
The problem with Dalio’s checklist, however, is that stock prices take their cue from companies’ fundamentals, not the economy. Yes, companies’ collective fortunes often reflect those of the broader economy, but not always. And when the two diverge, the relationship between economic results and stock prices breaks down, too.
It has been almost nine years since the last U.S. bear market, as defined by a 20 percent or more decline in the S&P 500 Index. That’s the second-longest stretch without one since 1928, according to Yardeni Research Inc. Only the period from December 1987 to March 2000 was longer.
That’s a long time for questions to pile up that can only be answered by the next downturn. Here are some of the most burning ones:
No one is more eager for the next bear market than long-short hedge funds.
Long-shorts had a good year in 2017. The HFRI Equity Hedge Total Index — an index of long-short equity hedge funds — returned 13.5 percent last year, its best performance since 2013.
But as my Bloomberg View colleague Barry Ritholtz pointed out last week, it wasn’t good enough. The equity hedge index trailed the S&P 500 Index by 8.4 percentage points last year, including dividends. It was the ninth consecutive year that long-short hedge funds trailed the broader market, and the S&P 500 outpaced the equity hedge index by a stunning 8.1 percentage points annually over that period.
Hedge funds have had a tough go of it lately. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index – an equal-weighted index of hedge funds – was down 1.1 percent in 2015, and is down another 2.3 percent through February of this year.