U.S. stock investors who are anxiously watching the yield curve are worried about the wrong inversion.
Investors have been howling about interest rates since Monday, when part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The five-year Treasury yield dipped below that of the three year by a razor-thin 0.01 percentage points. Yawn.
Granted, that’s not supposed to happen. The yields for longer-term bonds should be higher than those for shorter-term ones to compensate bond investors for parting with their money for a longer period. When investors accept a lower yield for longer-term bonds, it implies that they expect interest rates to decline. And declining rates have often been accompanied by recessions and bear markets.
But the fuss is overdone, at least so far. The “inversion” is so minuscule that it’s imperceptible on an actual yield curve. It’s also limited to a small part of the curve. As others have already pointed out, an inversion between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields would be more noteworthy.
Instead, investors should keep an eye on a different inversion: the difference between the earnings yield on stocks and the yield on cash. When the earnings yield has dipped below the cash yield in the past, stocks were in for a rough ride.
After the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate as expected on Wednesday, investors are no doubt watching how longer-term interest rates respond. But the stock market’s moves will be just as revealing.
U.S. stocks have been on a historic run since the 2008 financial crisis. The S&P 500 Index has returned 18 percent annually from March 2009 through August, including dividends, making it one of the best decades for stocks since 1926. It’s also the second-longest stretch without a bear market, as defined by a decline of 20 percent or more.
Bulls attribute much of that success to lower interest rates. It’s no coincidence that stocks skyrocketed soon after the Fed dropped rates in late 2008 in response to the financial crisis, they argue, and that the market kept moving higher while the Fed held rates low for years.
The gist of the argument is that investors expect a premium for owning risky stocks rather than safe bonds — in technical jargon, an equity risk premium. When bond yields decline, stocks can pay less, too, provided that the premium stays roughly the same. But there’s little evidence investors are paying attention to the premium.
Investors may be betting on marijuana in all the wrong places.
Enthusiasm for pot stocks reached a fever pitch last week when investors piled into British Columbia-based Tilray Inc., a developer of cannabis medicinal products, doubling its stock price over three trading days through Wednesday. Volume for Tilray’s stock had averaged 7 million shares a day since it went public on July 18. Last week, that average spiked to 20 million.
Investors were already plenty high on pot stocks before Tilray came along. Three of the biggest by market value, Toronto-based Cronos Group Inc., Vancouver-based Aurora Cannabis Inc. and Ontario-based Canopy Growth Corp., are hugely expensive. None are profitable, but their average price-to-sales ratio based on expected revenue for the 2018 fiscal year is a stunning 185, or 50 times that of the S&P 500 Growth Index’s P/S ratio of 3.6.
Here’s a brainteaser: While investors fret about trade wars and rate hikes, U.S. stock prices keep climbing.
Answer: Investors are indeed running for the exit — just through the wrong door.
Emerging-market stocks, not those in the U.S., are taking the brunt of investors’ fears. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 7.7 percent this year through Wednesday, while the S&P 500 Index is up 5.3 percent. The EM index is also down 16 percent from its high on Jan. 26, just shy of the 20 percent decline that signals a bear market.
It’s time for investors to stop fighting the last war. The next downturn most likely won’t be triggered by another meltdown of the financial system.
The Federal Reserve has concluded its stress test of big banks, a look into whether they have enough money set aside to withstand another 2008-type financial crisis. The Fed announced last week that all 35 banks examined are sufficiently capitalized. It disclosedthe second and final round of results on Thursday afternoon, giving all but one bank a passing grade and the go-ahead to return money to shareholders.
Investors didn’t need the Fed to tell them that banks are in better shape than they were a decade ago. The signs are everywhere. Profits have fallen across the industry since the financial crisis, an indication that banks are taking on less risk. Profit margins for the S&P 500 Financials Index averaged 9.3 percent from 2008 to 2017, down from an average of 13.8 percent from 2003 to 2007, the years leading up to the crisis. Return on equity is down to an average of 5.2 percent from 14.5 percent over the same periods.
Apologists for high U.S. stock prices just lost their favorite defense.
Ten-year Treasury yields rose above 3 percent on Tuesday for the first time since 2014, and bond investors are hysterical. Chris Verrone, head of technical analysis at Strategas Research Partners, told Bloomberg Television on Monday that breaching 3 percent would ring in “a 35-year trend change in bonds” in which investors in long-term bonds would stop making money.
Let’s take a breath. For one thing, no one knows where interest rates are headed. Moreover, bond investors need not fear rising rates. Yes, bond prices decline when interest rates rise, but higher rates also mean higher yields on new bonds. Over time, those higher yields should more than offset lower prices.
Facebook’s true value resides in its 2.1 billion users, and investors need to worry about what happens if enough of them decide that free social media isn’t worth the cost.
First, a disclosure: I’ve never used Facebook. I get that it’s an awesome way to keep in touch with family and friends, meet new people and get a personalized online experience. But I value my privacy, and it’s hard to reconcile that with the fact that Facebook is in the business of selling its users’ information.
And it’s a great business. Facebook generated earnings from continuing operations of $15.9 billion in 2017 on revenue of $40.7 billion, 98 percent of which came from advertising.
If it isn’t already obvious that Facebook is a money-making dynamo, consider how it stacks up with digital ad rival Alphabet Inc., the parent of Google. Facebook’s gross margin was 87 percent last year, and its net income margin was 39 percent. That compares with 59 percent and 11 percent, respectively, for Alphabet.
Marijuana stocks would be the ultimate growth play if investors weren’t already so fired up.
It just got easier for U.S. investors to bet on pot’s big plans. Toronto-based Cronos Group Inc., which invests in medical marijuana producers, on Tuesday became the first marijuana company listed on a major U.S. exchange. Analysts expect its revenue to reach $34 million this year, up from $400,000 in 2016.
Cronos’s debut follows that of ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF on Dec. 26, the first U.S.-listed marijuana exchange-traded fund. If ETFMG’s popularity is any indication, Cronos will soon be awash with money. Investors have already poured $386 million into the ETF through Tuesday.
Panicking is never a good plan when it comes to investing, but it’s particularly silly now, because nothing truly eventful has happened yet.
Sure, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1,175 points on Monday — the biggest one-day drop ever, before stocks fluctuated on Tuesday. In percentage terms, it was a 4.6 percent decline. Investors may not see that every day, especially recently, but it’s happened plenty of times in the past.
And yes, the S&P 500 Index was down 7.8 percent since Jan. 26 through Monday. But it’s nowhere near a 20 percent decline that constitutes a technical bear market. It’s not yet even a correction, which is a 10 percent decline.
It has been almost nine years since the last U.S. bear market, as defined by a 20 percent or more decline in the S&P 500 Index. That’s the second-longest stretch without one since 1928, according to Yardeni Research Inc. Only the period from December 1987 to March 2000 was longer.
That’s a long time for questions to pile up that can only be answered by the next downturn. Here are some of the most burning ones: