Emerging-Market Currency Fears Aren’t Wrong, Just Misplaced

There’s a reason to worry about emerging-market currencies, but not the one investors have in mind.

Some developing countries are stumbling, and their currencies aren’t taking it well. Turkey’s lira is down 16 percent against the dollar since its peak on Feb. 1 through Wednesday, and Brazil’s real is also down 16 percent since Jan. 24.

The declines have recently spread to other EM currencies. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index — a basket of currencies that tracks the country allocations in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index — is down 3.5 percent since its peak on April 3 through Wednesday.

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Dollar’s Wane Translates Into Investors’ Pain

A weaker dollar may be good for U.S. companies, but it’s no friend to many U.S. investors.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin rekindled concerns at the World Economic Forum in Davos last month that the Trump administration is fixing for a trade war. “Obviously a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,” Mnuchin said.

If there was any doubt what Mnuchin meant, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross made it plain by adding that “a trade war has been in place for quite a little while, the difference is the U.S. troops are now coming to the rampart.”

The dollar quickly complied. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the performance of the dollar relative to a basket of 10 global currencies, fell 1 percent the day Mnuchin made his comments. It was down an additional 0.3 percent through Thursday even after Mnuchin sought to clarify his remarks and expressed support for a strong dollar.

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