Active bond managers could use more of Bill Gross’s swagger.
No sooner had the hall-of-fame bond manager announced his retirement on Monday than the financial press declared his downfall. The Wall Street Journal headline proclaimed “Bill Gross, Onetime Bond King, Retiring After Messy Last Act,” and another in the Financial Times read “How the ‘bond king’ Bill Gross lost his crown.”
That messy last act refers to Gross’s stint as manager of the Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund since 2014. Gross made some big bets at Janus Henderson that didn’t pay off, most famously a wager last year that rates on U.S. Treasuries and German bunds would converge, resulting in sagging performance for his unconstrained bond fund.
Even though Gross’s calls didn’t turn out the way he and his investors had hoped, Gross was right to bet boldly on his best ideas, and active bond managers would be wise to follow his example.
The pivot to unconstrained investing was a brave departure for Gross, who had spent the previous three decades perfecting the “total return” approach to bond investing with the Pimco Total Return Fund he founded in 1987. The strategy attempts to outpace the broad bond market by taking modestly more risk, often by buying lower-quality bonds than are reflected in broad-market bond indexes while targeting a similar average maturity.
No one did it better than the Bond King. The institutional share class of Gross’s total return fund outpaced the broad bond market, as represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, by 1 percentage point annually during his run from June 1987 to September 2014, a huge margin for a bond manager. And he did it with only modestly more risk, as measured by annualized standard deviation (4.3 percent for Gross’s fund compared with 3.9 percent for the index).Continue reading “Bill Gross Misfired at Janus. But He Had the Right Idea.”