The U.S. stock market is dominating again this year, and money managers may soon face some unpalatable choices.
It’s not even close. The S&P 500 Index is up 9.9 percent in the eight months through August, including dividends. Meanwhile, overseas stocks, as measuredby the MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index, are down 3.2 percent. U.S. bonds, as represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, are down 1 percent. And hedge funds, as tracked by the HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index, are up a modest 1.7 percent.
It’s too soon to know how private assets, such as venture capital, private equity and real estate, have done because their results are generally reported on a multi-month lag. But it’s not likely to matter. Even the most ardent admirers of private assets, such as elite university endowments, allocate only a portion of their portfolios to them. So the results, however good, are unlikely to make up for the drag from other assets.
Theranos did no favors for its investors, but it may have unwittingly helped the next generation of innovators.
The Securities and Exchange Commission last week accused the company and its CEO, Elizabeth Holmes, of misleading investors. According to the SEC’s complaint, Theranos lied about the capabilities of its blood-testing technology on its way to raising $700 million from 2013 to 2015.
As my Gadfly colleague Max Nisen rightly pointed out, “the sheer extent and audacity of the fraud perpetrated by Theranos’s leaders separates it from the pack.” But Theranos couldn’t have pulled off its elaborate fraud without the help of two larger forces.
The first is investors’ eagerness to throw money at startups on a scale that not long ago was available only to publicly traded companies. So-called unicorns — startups valued at $1 billion or more — raised $70 billion from 2014 to 2017, including a record $19.6 billion last year, according to financial data company PitchBook. To put that in perspective, that’s roughly three-quarters of the total net flow to all U.S. mutual funds over those four years, according to fund flows compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.
If you want to know where cryptocurrencies are in their development, keep an eye on fees.
When a new “investment” comes along, investors are often too busy counting their anticipated bounty to care about cost. Shrewd purveyors predictably seize the opportunity to charge excessive fees. But reality inevitably falls short of investors’ expectations, and the focus eventually turns to how much they’re paying to invest.
That’s a short history of stock investing. Investors had little access to stock market data a century ago. They didn’t have the luxury of knowing, for example, that the S&P 500 Index would generate a real return of 7.1 percent annually from 1926 to 2017, including dividends. Or that the index’s real return would fall short of that long-term average 52 percent of the time over rolling 10-year periods.